There are two simple approaches:
1. For trade receivables (receivables from sales of goods/services): You look at how much of similar receivables could not be collected in the past (for example, "60% of receivables more than 90 days overdue were historically never collected") and apply this rate to current receivables. In addition, the expectation of "how will the economy be in the coming period, worse or better" is added to this rate.
2. For loans (such as bank loans): Three things are asked:
- How much is at risk? (what is owed if the borrower cannot pay)
- What is the probability of non-payment? (what percent chance it will not be paid)
- If it is not paid, how much do we lose? (if there is collateral, part of it is recovered)
Let's see it with an example again. This time you lend a friend 10,000 TRY, and they leave you something worth 6,000 TRY (say, their watch) as collateral "in case I can't pay." Now let's ask the same three questions for this example:
- How much is at risk? If your friend one day becomes unable to pay, their debt to you at that moment is exactly 10,000 TRY. So the exposure is 10,000 TRY.
- What is the probability of non-payment? You know your friend a bit, their work is somewhat unstable — say there is a 10% chance they become unable to repay this debt.
- If they do not pay, how much do we lose? If they cannot pay, you have the watch as collateral; you can sell it and get 6,000 TRY. So only 4,000 TRY of the 10,000 TRY debt becomes a real loss — a loss rate of 40%.
Now let's multiply the three: 10,000 TRY (exposure) × 10% (probability of non-payment) × 40% (loss rate) = 400 TRY.
So you know from the start that, on average, you may never see 400 TRY of this 10,000 TRY receivable, and you prepare accordingly. Banks do exactly this calculation for millions of loans, one by one for each of them.
In addition, loans are divided into 3 stages according to their risk status: for loans performing normally, only the risk of the next 1 year is calculated; for loans whose risk has increased significantly or that have already become problematic, all the risk until the end of the loan is taken into account.