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IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss (ECL) Calculator

Calculate expected credit loss (ECL) and provision for trade receivables or loans under IFRS 9 / TFRS 9. Tool is for educational purposes; Turkey context (Turkish Lira).

Aging Buckets

Enter receivable balances and historical loss rates for each aging bucket.

Not Past Due

1–30 Days Past Due

31–60 Days Past Due

61–90 Days Past Due

More than 90 Days Past Due

Total Receivables

1,213,000.00 TRY

Total ECL (Allowance)

40,535.00 TRY

Average Coverage Ratio

3.34%

Additional Provision

15,535.00 TRY

ECL Provision Matrix

Expected credit loss by aging bucket.

Aging BucketReceivable (TRY)Historical Loss Rate (%)Adjusted Rate (%)Expected Credit Loss (TRY)
Not Past Due850,000.00 TRY0.50%0.55%4,675.00 TRY
1–30 Days Past Due210,000.00 TRY2.00%2.20%4,620.00 TRY
31–60 Days Past Due95,000.00 TRY8.00%8.80%8,360.00 TRY
61–90 Days Past Due40,000.00 TRY25.00%27.50%11,000.00 TRY
More than 90 Days Past Due18,000.00 TRY60.00%66.00%11,880.00 TRY
TOTAL1,213,000.00 TRY3.34%40,535.00 TRY
Journal Entry
Account CodeAccount NameDebitCredit
654Provision Expense15,535.00 TRY—
129Allowance for Doubtful Receivables (–)—15,535.00 TRY

The entry reflects the net movement versus the prior IFRS 9 allowance. Reclassification under local tax rules is a separate assessment.

Model Assumptions

  • • PD×LGD×EAD is a modelling assumption; it is not the sole method prescribed by IFRS 9.
  • • 12-month PD is supplied by the user; it represents lifetime credit losses weighted by the probability of default within 12 months.
  • • Stage 2/3 PD is cumulative lifetime PD; it is not re-grown with remaining term via 1−(1−PD)^n.
  • • Stage 3 PD=100% is a model assumption (credit-impaired / treated as default). It is not the sole IFRS 9 formula; LGD remains a separate multiplier.
  • • Discount is a single-point model assumption: loss is treated as occurring at horizon end. This tool does not fully model IFRS 9 expected cash-shortfall timing.
  • • Forward-looking input on the simplified matrix is a single percentage uplift, not a full probability-weighted multi-scenario model.
  • • Scope: funded simple exposure. EAD is entered as current principal/exposure; undrawn commitments, contractual interest shortfalls and complex cash-gap models are out of scope.

Out of Scope

  • • A full IFRS 9 probability-weighted multi-scenario set (optimistic/base/pessimistic) and a complete reasonable/supportable forward-looking package are out of scope; only a single % uplift is offered.
  • • The tool does not assess significant increase in credit risk (SICR); stage classification is entered by the user.
  • • This tool does not constitute an audit opinion or professional accounting advice.
About the Calculation Method

Simplified approach: ECL = Receivable × Historical Loss Rate × (1 + Forward-looking Adjustment) for each aging bucket.

General approach (model assumption): undiscounted ECL = EAD × PD × LGD, then 1 / (1 + discount)^horizon. Stage 1 PD = 12-month PD; Stage 2/3 PD = cumulative lifetime PD (not re-compounded).

Model assumption: default/cash shortfall is treated as a single point at horizon end; the loss is discounted over remaining term. This is not a claim that IFRS 9 cash-flow timing is fully modelled.

What Is Expected Credit Loss (ECL) and Why Calculate It?

Discover what ECL is, why it is required, and how it is calculated—with simple examples.

Let's start with a simple example

1/6

Suppose you lend 1,000 TRY to each of 10 friends. They all say "I'll pay you back." But you know from life that probably 1 of these 10 will never manage to repay — maybe they will lose their job, maybe they will have some other problem.

Now ask yourself: how much money do you really have in your pocket?

  • On paper: you have 10,000 TRY receivable.
  • Realistically expected: you will probably get back only 9,000 TRY.

This is exactly what "Expected Credit Loss" (ECL for short) means: estimating in advance a loss that has not yet happened but is likely to happen, and taking it into account.

The same story applies to companies

2/6

Think of a company — whether it sells goods on credit and has trade receivables, or it is a bank that has granted loans. The company's books show an amount called "receivables." But in real life:

  • Some customers delay their payments.
  • Some can never pay (they go bankrupt, their business ends, they disappear).
  • Some loans become "non-performing" over time.

If the company writes "I will collect all of this money" in its books and leaves it at that, it actually looks richer than it is. This misleads both the company itself and the banks, partners and investors who look at it.

The ECL calculation is done to prevent this illusion: it estimates in advance the answer to the question "How much of this receivable/loan will we really not be able to collect?", records that amount as an expense and sets it aside (this is called a provision).

Why is it mandatory, who requires it?

3/6

This is not an arbitrary choice — it is a requirement of an accounting standard called TFRS 9 / IFRS 9. This standard is a rule that companies and banks in most countries of the world must follow when preparing their financial statements. Its purpose is simple:

Financial statements should show the real situation, not an embellished one.

In the 2008 global financial crisis, it turned out that banks' balance sheets that looked like "everything is fine" actually carried large hidden losses. Since then, the world has moved to the logic of "let's see the loss before it happens, at the moment it becomes probable." ECL is the result of that lesson.

So how is this calculation done? (Very briefly)

4/6

There are two simple approaches:

1. For trade receivables (receivables from sales of goods/services): You look at how much of similar receivables could not be collected in the past (for example, "60% of receivables more than 90 days overdue were historically never collected") and apply this rate to current receivables. In addition, the expectation of "how will the economy be in the coming period, worse or better" is added to this rate.

2. For loans (such as bank loans): Three things are asked:

  • How much is at risk? (what is owed if the borrower cannot pay)
  • What is the probability of non-payment? (what percent chance it will not be paid)
  • If it is not paid, how much do we lose? (if there is collateral, part of it is recovered)

Let's see it with an example again. This time you lend a friend 10,000 TRY, and they leave you something worth 6,000 TRY (say, their watch) as collateral "in case I can't pay." Now let's ask the same three questions for this example:

  • How much is at risk? If your friend one day becomes unable to pay, their debt to you at that moment is exactly 10,000 TRY. So the exposure is 10,000 TRY.
  • What is the probability of non-payment? You know your friend a bit, their work is somewhat unstable — say there is a 10% chance they become unable to repay this debt.
  • If they do not pay, how much do we lose? If they cannot pay, you have the watch as collateral; you can sell it and get 6,000 TRY. So only 4,000 TRY of the 10,000 TRY debt becomes a real loss — a loss rate of 40%.

Now let's multiply the three: 10,000 TRY (exposure) × 10% (probability of non-payment) × 40% (loss rate) = 400 TRY.

So you know from the start that, on average, you may never see 400 TRY of this 10,000 TRY receivable, and you prepare accordingly. Banks do exactly this calculation for millions of loans, one by one for each of them.

In addition, loans are divided into 3 stages according to their risk status: for loans performing normally, only the risk of the next 1 year is calculated; for loans whose risk has increased significantly or that have already become problematic, all the risk until the end of the loan is taken into account.

So what is this calculation good for?

5/6
  • The company does not fool itself. It knows how much money it really has.
  • Banks, investors and partners get reliable information. When making decisions they work with figures close to reality, not embellished ones.
  • Surprise losses decrease. Instead of appearing all at once and creating a shock, the loss is seen and managed little by little over time.
  • Audit and legal compliance are ensured. For companies applying TFRS 9, this calculation is a condition for their financial statements to be accepted as correct.

In short

6/6

ECL means preparing financial statements not with the naive optimism of "we will definitely collect every receivable/loan we have in full," but by thinking "realistically, based on past experience and current conditions, how much of it can we recover." Just as you want to know the real money in your pocket when you lend to your friends — companies too must know their true financial position.

Frequently Asked Questions

Related topics

This tool is for education and demonstration only. Real TFRS 9 / IFRS 9 allowances must follow entity policies, loss data and independent audit/advisory judgement.

Official Sources

This tool is based on the following standards. It is for educational purposes; it does not guarantee IFRS 9 compliance.

  • IFRS Foundation — IFRS 9 Financial Instruments

    IFRS 9 does not prescribe a single measurement method for expected credit losses. PD×LGD×EAD is a common modelling assumption, not the only approach. 12-month ECL is lifetime credit losses weighted by the probability of default within 12 months (user supplies the 12-month PD). Discount uses a single-point approximation. This tool is for educational purposes and does not constitute an audit opinion.

Reviewed on: September 19, 2026

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Legal Disclaimer

Calculation tools are for informational and preliminary calculation purposes only. Legislative changes may not be reflected immediately in the calculation tools available on the site. They are not binding in official declarations or legal proceedings. They do not replace financial consultancy or legal advice. For definitive results, you can contact me. ozcankutlu.com cannot be held responsible for damages arising from calculation errors or legislative changes.

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